Recently in Politics
Rupture or Repetition? Predicting Power, Politics, and the Year Ahead
‘It’s beginning to look a lot like Russia’: This winter, regions of the United States have not only experienced extremely low temperatures, but frequent appearances from ICE, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. According to the agency’s government website, the mission of the organization is to “protect America through criminal investigations and enforcing immigration laws to preserve national security and public safety.” As of January 2026, however, two American citizens have died while protesting the immigration raids in Minneapolis, Minnesota…
Viksit Bharat 2047, or Developed India 2047, is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for transforming India into a globally recognised ‘developed nation’ by the centenary of its independence. Launched in 2023, the initiative sets out ambitious goals, including expanding India’s GDP to $30–40 trillion, eradicating poverty, and achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2047, among other targets…
The plight of a modern-day petrostate: On January 3 2026, at 4:30am local time, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and his wife Cilia Flores, were abducted by the US military after a series of strikes on the capital city. Maduro was immediately flown to the US where he will face charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, money laundering, and corruption. An estimated 40 Venezuelans were killed during the strikes; the turbulence, however, is nothing new for the South American petrostate.
Oil was discovered for commercial use in Venezuela in 1914, and the industry quickly grew into one of the world’s largest producers. Foreign companies dominated production, exploiting both the land and the indigenous labour force. Over the following decades, Venezuela endured recurring economic instability driven by the global oil market’s boom-and-bust cycles. At its height, the country became the world’s third-largest producer of crude oil; however, despite oil accounting for the vast majority of Venezuela’s industrial activity and workforce, little of the resulting wealth reached the nation itself…
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Recently in Business
U.S. Rate Cuts, Commercial Real Estate Crises, and the UK Startup Exodus
I. US Rate Policy: Powell vs. Trump
The Bank of England’s latest rate cut signals a cautious but noteworthy shift in monetary policy, offering some level of relief to households and businesses while still facing lingering worries about inflation and economic fragility. The UK’s central bankers face a moderate retreat from a 4.5% peak interest rate with cuts toward 4.0% on the horizon by the Bank of England, signaling a cautious pivot towards “easier money”. While Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that inflation remained above target, the fifth cut in twelve months, it marks a deliberate step amid concerns about job losses and headline price stickiness. Meanwhile, their American counterparts are undergoing a more conflicting rate debate.
In Washington, President Donald Trump vocalized his desire for steep rate relief, even urging a plunge to 1% and publicly denouncing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, snidely referring to him as “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell”. Nonetheless, Powell has maintained a steadfast stance, backing up his decision with data-driven conclusions. At the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, rates were held steady at 4.25-4.50%. Powell noted that rate decisions swayed by political influence threatened policy credibility.
Despite this news, markets price in about 100% odds of a cut in September, in accordance with moderating inflation and early signs of the labor market cooling. Powell has yet to respond to Trump’s increasingly escalated rhetoric, which has included threats of legal action to force a retreat.
II. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Housing
In CRE and housing, high borrowing costs persist and continue to stifle CRE activity. According to Freddie Mac data, for the week ending August 8 2025, the US average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.67%, sparking a 23% spike in refinance applications at the same time home-purchase applications slowed down. These metrics flag how elevated rates keep CRE transactions muted. The impact is evident as many businesses that own office assets are facing rising debt burdens and vacancies, while banks are seeing growing stress on their CRE loan portfolios. In particular, CRE delinquencies rose by 23% to over $116 billion by the end of March 2025, underscoring mounting financial strain among property owners and lenders.
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