Recently in Politics
When elections work…and when they don’t: November in Global Politics
Netherlands: Rob Jetten is set to become the Netherlands’ youngest and first openly gay prime minister after his D66 Party narrowly beat Geert Wilder’s PVV Party this October. In a snap election where fifteen parties were vying for representation, the two top parties tied for seats, but Jetten’s centre-left party won by a narrow 29,000 votes.
The D66 party, which had a mere 9 seats less than two years ago, surged in the polls only in recent weeks following Jetten’s dazzling media campaign, which even included a hit appearance on a game show finale. He must now take on the difficult task of forming a coalition with at least three other parties to secure the 76 seats required to rule the country.
Tanzania: President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been re-elected after securing 97.6% of the vote in the country’s presidential election with an estimated 87% voter turnout. Hassan’s party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and its predecessor, Tanu, have not lost an election since Tanzania became independent from Great Britain in 1961.
Hassan called the elections “Free and Democratic” in her victory speech, yet international organisations, including the United Nations, are concerned about the validity of the election after Hassan’s two main challengers were barred from running and imprisoned. Additionally, in demonstrations leading up to the election, an estimated 500-3,000 protestors were killed in clashes with government security forces.
Japan: Sanae Takaichi makes history as Japan’s first female prime minister, winning a wide majority in the Upper and Lower Houses in November’s Parliamentary elections. Takaichi, a staunch conservative and nationalist who draws close comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, was elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in October and will now serve as Japan’s fourth prime minister in five years.
Takaichi’s win offers some optimism for Japan’s markets amidst the country’s rising debt and feeble growth. This outcome was very much hoped for by the LDP, which lost its majority in both houses for the first time since 1955. The choice of a conservative candidate like Takaichi comes in response to the success of Sanseito’s far-right, MAGA-style party in July – however, though Japan’s new ‘Iron Lady’ may be able to overrule its ‘mini-Trump’, Takaichi will face a difficult road ahead with mounting US tariffs and a China-Taiwan collision fast approaching.
Interested in Writing for the St Andrews Economist?
Recently in Business
U.S. Rate Cuts, Commercial Real Estate Crises, and the UK Startup Exodus
I. US Rate Policy: Powell vs. Trump
The Bank of England’s latest rate cut signals a cautious but noteworthy shift in monetary policy, offering some level of relief to households and businesses while still facing lingering worries about inflation and economic fragility. The UK’s central bankers face a moderate retreat from a 4.5% peak interest rate with cuts toward 4.0% on the horizon by the Bank of England, signaling a cautious pivot towards “easier money”. While Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that inflation remained above target, the fifth cut in twelve months, it marks a deliberate step amid concerns about job losses and headline price stickiness. Meanwhile, their American counterparts are undergoing a more conflicting rate debate.
In Washington, President Donald Trump vocalized his desire for steep rate relief, even urging a plunge to 1% and publicly denouncing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, snidely referring to him as “Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell”. Nonetheless, Powell has maintained a steadfast stance, backing up his decision with data-driven conclusions. At the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, rates were held steady at 4.25-4.50%. Powell noted that rate decisions swayed by political influence threatened policy credibility.
Despite this news, markets price in about 100% odds of a cut in September, in accordance with moderating inflation and early signs of the labor market cooling. Powell has yet to respond to Trump’s increasingly escalated rhetoric, which has included threats of legal action to force a retreat.
II. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Housing
In CRE and housing, high borrowing costs persist and continue to stifle CRE activity. According to Freddie Mac data, for the week ending August 8 2025, the US average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.67%, sparking a 23% spike in refinance applications at the same time home-purchase applications slowed down. These metrics flag how elevated rates keep CRE transactions muted. The impact is evident as many businesses that own office assets are facing rising debt burdens and vacancies, while banks are seeing growing stress on their CRE loan portfolios. In particular, CRE delinquencies rose by 23% to over $116 billion by the end of March 2025, underscoring mounting financial strain among property owners and lenders.
Latest From Our Instagram
