By Mary Henderson
The five countries of Central Asia (C5), while rich in mineral and fossil fuels, have a serious issue when it comes to the water resources so fundamental to their economies. As the effects of climate change worsen, regional water security is now a geostrategic challenge of increasingly economic and political significance. Unpredictable levels of water, accompanied by more frequent floods and droughts, a rising population, and external water withdrawals mean responding now is more crucial than ever for future sustainability. Eighty-two million people in Central Asia currently suffer from water insecurity, and the World Bank has predicted that more than 5 million people in Central Asia could become internal climate migrants by 2050. The 2021 Central Asian drought, the loss of the Aral Sea, the evaporation of glaciers in the Tian Shan mountains and declining levels of the Caspian Sea are all stark indicators of how natural and man-made disasters impact Central Asia’s already fragile water security.
Water security in Central Asia is reliant on shared water sources, largely due to unequal distribution between upstream and downstream countries, and outdated infrastructure that struggles to meet the demands of growing populations. Following independence from the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan moved away from a system of centralised water management towards development priorities based on sovereign natural and political circumstances. Soviet planners had not paid much heed to the administrative boundaries between the states, resulting in networks of irrigation canals and reservoir cascades that arbitrarily spanned different territories. Post-1992, rather than being able to mutually compensate each other in times of limited water availability, a lack of cooperative water resource monitoring and evaluation resulted in a knowledge gap with the potential to cost the region more than $4.5 billion annually.
Regional cooperation is critical to ensuring sustainable water management in Central Asia. Sharing these limited resources, while maintaining the balance between upstream hydroelectric projects and downstream agriculture, will reduce regional tensions and enable a coordinated effort to tackle climate change. These challenges provide a clear opportunity for innovation in water-management technology, the use of the arid lands for new projects and increased regional cooperation to share and protect these vital bodies of water.
Water use in Central Asia
Most water in Central Asia is used for agriculture, with low rainfall meaning water-intensive crops like cotton rely on irrigation. Altogether, the C5 have irrigated a total area of 100,000km2, requiring enormous amounts of river water. This puts extreme stress on water supplies; diversion of river water for agriculture takes up more than 90% of total water usage, mostly used to irrigate cotton fields in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
There is also a complex relationship between water security and energy production, with resources dispersed across the five countries. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan all have plentiful fossil fuel reserves, which allow them to both meet domestic energy needs and export internationally. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on the other hand depend on energy imports from their neighbours, holding very little oil and gas of their own. Meanwhile, with mountains and plenty of rainwater, these two countries have strong potential to develop their hydropower capabilities as an energy source; Kyrgyzstan only uses 10% of that potential, while Tajikistan only 5%. However, while further development of dams could have the potential as a major export revenue earner, the cost of such development has hindered significant progress. The current two largest hydroelectric projects have cost each country around half their GDP. Hope remains to finance future projects by an alliance of local and foreign sources, though reliance on US bonds or Russian investment comes with its own controversies. Large hydroelectricity projects have the effect of flooding upstream areas and displacing local communities. The Rogdun Dam in Turkmenistan mentioned earlier is predicted to cover a surface area of 170km2 when full, which will submerge over 70 villages and displace 42,000 inhabitants. Human Rights Watch has reported that these resettled families have not yet been sufficiently compensated for the loss of their land and homes, and that the areas they have been moved to do not provide adequate housing and education. Furthermore, the development of such dams threatens Uzbekistan’s access to the flow of water from upstream Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan so needed for its cotton sector. This has led to retaliations such as obstructions of the transport of materials needed to build the Rogdun Dam and raising the price of gas supplies to the two countries. Domestic water supplies have significantly improved in recent years, though many people still do not have sources of clean drinking water in their homes. Although this is largely centred around rural areas, there are parts of Bishkek, for example, in which residents have to go to water pumps daily for their supplies. There have been shortages of gas and water supplies in Turkmenistan, a situation that is particularly dangerous during the summer when temperatures frequently hit the high 40s.
Key Challenges
The environmental consequences of such water use have been immense. In the 1950s, Soviet engineers successfully developed Central Asian deserts into fertile farmland for crop cultivation. This intensive agriculture in unsuitable conditions however came at the expense of bodies of water, most notably the Aral Sea, the once fourth-largest saline lake which has all but dried up. Fishing communities have been deprived of their livelihoods as rising salt concentrations destroyed biological ecosystems, while the region’s climate has become much more extreme without the stabilising effect of the large body of water. This sees colder winters and hotter summers, as well as toxic dust clouds of salt and pesticide residue that cause significant respiratory and health problems in surrounding areas. Similarly, the Caspian Sea is becoming significantly shallower, with desalination and insufficient water entering the sea to keep it healthy. Without a quick enough response, there will be significant repercussions, not just on the immediate human and natural environment, but in terms of wider trading and shipping networks that rely on the Caspian Sea as a Middle Corridor to shift commodities from China and Central Asia to Europe.
Intensive agriculture has also polluted the region’s rivers and soil. Surplus water from irrigation has flowed back into rivers, carrying salt residue and chemical fertilisers and pesticides. Leaky irrigation infrastructure, poor drainage, and unsustainable greening projects are wasting huge amounts of water too. Over half of irrigated land in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan has become saline, making soil unsuitable for growing most crops.
A wide range of political systems contributes to disparities in the levels of commitment to regional cooperation on water management. While Astana promotes dialogue and serious initiatives such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, Ashgabat has been much more reluctant to collaborate with the region on environmental issues. Cooperation between the C5 has also proved much more difficult than under the centrally-planned Soviet Union. There have been several bilateral and regional agreements signed, including the 1992 Almaty Agreement establishing a commission to coordinate regional water management policies. Nonetheless, these regional organisations have proved too weak to sufficiently coordinate water management, and the frequency of transboundary disputes has increased. This has been raised on an international level, with a 2011 US Senate report stating that “the national security implications of this looming water shortage- directly caused or aggravated by agriculture demands, hydroelectric power generation and climate instability- will be felt all over the world.” Among others, there have been clashes between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan between 2021 and 2022 over land claims, with access to water, a serious issue for local communities, intensifying militarist political approaches and worsened the living conditions of the local people during the conflict. The densely populated Fergana Valley remains an extremely tendentious region, as ethnic tensions and territorial disputes due to poorly defined borders combine with competition for water, results in violent clashes, border closures, and electricity and water supplies being cut off.
Future Solutions
Closer cooperation, transparency, and more efficient water use is increasingly necessary to fairly share limited water resources. This involves balancing the hydroelectricity needs of the upstream countries with the agricultural needs of the downstream, while managing shared infrastructure. Without this, the region runs the risk of further exacerbating border tensions, social and economic inequalities, and environmental degradation.
There is plenty of opportunity to improve efficiency in the region’s use of water resources. Obsolete Soviet-era infrastructure requires extensive modernisation, and has hitherto seen little investment. Many of the irrigation canals are unlined and lose significant qualities of water due to leakages; for instance, the Karakum Canal in Turkmenistan loses around a third of its water annually, seeing massive waterlogging and salinisation of surrounding land that makes around 35 percent of irrigated land unusable. Efforts have been made in Uzbekistan to reduce such wastage, with the aid of bodies such as the World Bank and the EU. Improving the quality of water transportation will enable Central Asian governments more time to address the more intricate issues around climate change and water diversion projects. Another alternative is charging farmers for water. This would be an incentive for efficiency, while also a financing source for irrigation-anal maintenance.
Improved relations between the C5 have facilitated closer cooperation on water-related issues. Hitherto, since their independence, the five countries have been more focused on pursuing national interests in the name of preserving their own sovereignty, rather than promoting regional integration. This is an opportunity to strengthen regional solidarity in the name of shared interests, particularly amidst the influence of neighbouring powers like Russia and China. The C5 presidents met in Astana in August 2024 to discuss water issues, with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan stating it is “necessary to develop a new consolidated water policy, based on equal and fair use of water and struct fulfilment of obligations.”
Furthermore, engaging with extra-regional partners will be key to ensuring long term funding and accountability. This has already begun, with an array of European investment in the region. The Suez Group of France has signed a seven-year contract with an Uzbek water company to improve drinking water access in Tashkent. France has also partnered with Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and the World Bank to organise the One Water Summit in December 2024, strengthening relationships between Central Asia and those with the capital and expertise of water management. Germany, Slovakia and the Netherlands have also engaged extensively with Central Asian nations to share knowledge on resource management and safety of water structures. The EBRD have provided loans and investment grants for projects in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while USAID has been active in organising initiatives to strengthen regional capacity to manage shared water resources and mitigate environmental risks. This has taken the form of academic training sponsorships, organisation of regional coordination committees and research tours of relevant areas for water specialists and journalists.
All in all, more effort needs to be made to strengthen the C5 regional bloc in a united manner. Unless there is some sense of cooperation and dialogue, the very different foreign objectives and alliances that each of the five states hold risk stagnating meaningful engagement with the outside world. Working together through some form of transboundary joint water policy body would be helpful in improving legislation and regulation around water management, while being a stable organisation with which international public and private investment partners could successfully negotiate.
Reforming the deteriorating Soviet-era infrastructure is a further way in which the region can demonstrate a serious commitment to this critical area. Such measures include encouraging the use of new innovative technologies to insulate the canal bottoms and cover the tops of canals with solar panels, which would provide the energy needed to pump while reducing evaporation. Strengthening and leveraging existing Central Asian water agencies, such as the ICWC, could help regional governments coordinate joint improvements to current water flows in a way that is mutually beneficial. This would also contribute towards greater international investment of funding and expertise, essential for avoiding waste and poorly designed development. Ensuring transparency and accountability will be extremely important during this, with regional governments needing to consider reliable auditing procedures that can ensure funds are not misappropriated. This will then increase domestic trust in their leadership, as well as confidence for investors that it is worthwhile to continue future partnerships.
Water security is a fundamental limiting factor for Central Asia’s economic, industrial, and social development. In order to overcome this, the C5 must come together to decisively and mutually upgrade out-of-date infrastructure, incorporate new technologies, and attract foreign partners and investment. A shared and resilient commitment today will lay the foundation for a more stable, prosperous and climate-resilient future for the whole region.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
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