by Tommy Thin
Today, the topic of the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to bounce fervently around both the media and the public consciousness. However, although the consequences associated with the rise of AI will likely come on a much smaller scale first, the questions posed continue to be existential in nature and pertaining to the human race at large. The more immediate national-level implications of the rise of AI must therefore be considered in this tidal wave of attention alongside its potential longer-term consequences. Whilst they do not hit the headlines as strikingly as ‘AI APOCALYPSE’, the immediate future of many countries is absolutely in the hands of their AI policy regarding how they grapple with automation and potential mass unemployment. In Asia, there are two clear and overarching socio-economic patterns and archetypes that might be expected to dictate this policy. The first: the nation with an advanced economy and ageing population which, contrary to anxiety inducing media reports, might stand to benefit from AI. The second: the nation with an emerging economy and young, vastly unemployed population which one might reasonably expect to be thrown into hysteria.
Japan and India absolutely typify this situation. Japan, commonly referred to as the ‘oldest’ country in the world, and home to the third largest economy in the world, is the quintessential example of the advanced economy. Projections suggest that by 2036, one third of the nation’s population will be over 65 years old. India, for all its growth in recent decades and its sheer enormity, is still only a much less advanced, emerging economy. Contrastingly, 65% of their population are aged under 35 and face threatening unemployment rates. Certainly, these two case studies offer the starkest contrast, but similar patterns can be found across Asia; one could likely substitute South Korea for Japan or Indonesia for India – for their demographical and economic similarities – and produce a similar report.
For Japan, AI developments may prove a very timely saving grace. While much of the world speculates over whether AI implementation and development is an existential threat, Japan face the very opposite question, insofar as not implementing AI – or finding some other means of supporting their population – could have fatal implications. In January of this year, PM Fumio Kishida stated that Japan was already “on the verge of whether (they) can continue to function as a society,” referring to the country’s ageing population – AI labour automation could help the nation weather this storm.
Indeed, there is a strong precedent for automation and use of innovative technologies in Japanese labour and manufacturing. When manufacturing automation was increasing rapidly in the 1980s, Japan was ahead of the curb. As Robert Kemelhor put it: “Japanese technology is closely related to Japanese culture” and a “2000-year history of survival with limited natural resources”. Indeed, over recent decades, resourcefulness and optimised efficiency have characterised Japanese society and have become even more prominent in the image of Japan through the rise of tech. While this has often manifested itself in the development and use of robotics, in 2023 focus turns towards AI as Tokyo adopt an aptly progressive policy. As experts put it, Japanese AI policy focuses on “maximising AI’s positive impact on society, rather than suppressing it out of overestimated risks.” Japan’s leading industries such as high tech are some of those with the highest automation potential, and so, with the correct adoption and implementation of new generative AI technology, Japan could see a great boost in growth as they come out of recession.
This year, the Japanese government have become particularly proactive in their AI policy. In April, they marked their intent on increasing focus on AI by establishing a council for national strategy. Following this, the PM affirmed that the country supports the use of new generative AI technology in industry, specifically noting its potential benefits in mitigating problems with the country’s imbalanced population. Similarly, some of the nation’s biggest tech companies have been pivoting to AI, such as Softbank Robotics who completed a merger with AI start-up Berkshire Grey in a several hundred-million-dollar deal. Ultimately, then, there can be no doubt that,AI stands front and centre in Japan’s future and the country is certainly gearing itself firmly towards this.
Yet while AI developments look to deliver Japan a serendipitous liberation from the weight of their top-heavy population structure, for India, it could be expected they may deliver a crushing blow. Already the burden of unemployment on young people (aged 15-24) is immense as it stands three times higher than that for older adults. New threats of AI automation, which IBM India CEO estimated would put 30% of his workers at risk of losing their jobs, could push India’s unemployment crisis to breaking point. Certainly, this would appear a dark cloud over the projected growth of the world’s largest democracy. However, somewhat paradoxically, this is only more reason for India to be at the forefront of the global AI project.
The perceived inevitability of the rise of AI in industry has overridden cautiousness and fear, in favour of strategizing to ‘Make AI work for India’, as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman puts it. India had already began to transition into an economy that utilises automation with robotics: CEO of Indian robotics company Cybernetik Technologies remarked that “there were less than 100 robots made annually for industries about 15 years ago”, when India’s growth was ramping up, “and now, 5,000 to 6,000 robots are built every year.” And now, India is at the forefront of AI development and research. Whilst being the seventh largest economy in the world, India are the fifth largest investors in AI. Rather than taking a step away from AI as a means of damage limitation, the government in New Delhi are aiming to harness AI as a means of further growth and their goal of becoming a global superpower. While this might appear at odds with the potential risks AI poses to India’s young population, this is not dictating India’s policy because, as experts write, the government’s policy on AI “has social empowerment and inclusion at its core.” While AI developments may incur some job losses, it will also bring previously unfound solutions to some of the country’s oldest problems such as health and security services. Perhaps on top of this, some solace can be found in the presumption that some proportion of young people will likely one day work in jobs that do not currently exist. That certainly seems plausible with the rise of tech companies, especially given the importance that IT and Business services already have to the Indian economy.
So, from such a variety of contrasting evidence and circumstances there seems to be only one common conclusion: regardless of whether AI developments appear to promise imminent danger or opportune salvation, inaction is never the answer. These case studies highlight this commonality at either end of the spectrum but look further across Asia and the same can be found. South Korea have nearly as many AI patent filings as any other country in the world. Indonesia’s AI investment is expected to skyrocket to $2.8 bn, nearly doubling in one year. And it would be remiss to ignore China, the worlds’ second biggest player in AI following the US. While it is appealing to pontificate on the possible dangers or excitements of AI across the globe, this is not drastically affecting policy for those most at risk or those standing to benefit the most. The primacy of AI in Asia’s future is self-evident, and all parties are preparing for it.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
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