By Sarah Caldwell
“Was Magyar the cause of change—or its perfect beneficiary?” In the weeks leading up to the Hungarian election, the streets of Budapest were flooded with anti-Magyar, anti-Zelensky, anti-EU, pro-Fidesz political posters. And, even more to my surprise, a strong mounting of American flags across the iconic Széchenyi Chain Bridge, which connects Buda to Pest. This, supposedly, was in place for American Vice President J.D. Vance’s special visit in support of Viktor Orban days before he was ousted.
Peter Magyar, leader of the centre to centre-right Tisza party, won a two-thirds supermajority in Hungary’s parliamentary election this month, ending sixteen years of Viktor Orbán’s rule. Authorities reported the highest voter turnout since the fall of communism in 1989. Founded in 2020, Tisza surged after Magyar became leader in 2024. With its supermajority, the party now has the power to amend Hungary’s Fundamental Law, enabling it to reverse constitutional changes introduced under Orbán over the past decade and a half.
But who is Magyar, and why did this only happen now? Peter Magyar was an Orban loyalist as early as 2003, when he was a young lawyer setting up a legal defence group – ironically called “Do not be afraid” – for anti-corruption protestors led by then-opposition leader Viktor Orban. Magyar then married Judit Varga, who would become Orban’s justice minister in 2018 and Fidesz’s campaign manager for the European parliament elections in 2023, though a year later she was forced to resign after taking the fall for a cover-up in a widening child sex abuse scandal in the government.
The couple divorced in 2024 after Magyar allegedly released recordings of their private conversations, in which Varga appeared to acknowledge corruption in sensitive court cases during her time as justice minister. Varga accused Magyar of domestic abuse, which he denies. He subsequently left Fidesz, accusing it of corruption, moral decline, and scapegoating women.
Magyar seemed to find himself and his party in the right place at the right time ahead of the 2026 election. As Fidesz lamented on how a pro-EU government would send Hungarian youth to the frontlines of Ukraine and suggested that Magyar was a pawn for EU leadership in Brussels, Tisza countered with policies and promises to fix issues that Hungarians seemed to actually care about. These included improving social services, reviving a stagnant economy, and tackling high inflation.
Magyar also hopes to delicately toe the line between Russia and the EU. Tisza is a pro-EU party that seeks to strongly support both Ukraine and NATO while improving EU relations. Even still, Magyar has stressed that he remains a Hungarian nationalist and that he plans to retain the option of cheap Russian energy imports.
Both Trump and Putin have said that they would work with the incoming premier, with Trump almost completely backtracking on his support for Orban, stating that “[Orban] was substantially behind” and that “[he] wasn’t involved in this one. Viktor’s a good man, though.” On the Russian side, the true test will come from a proposed Russian nuclear power plant in central Hungary. Allies are pressing for the large-scale project to go ahead, yet Magyar has stated that plans are to be revisited because they were ‘prohibitively expensive.’
Across Hungary, especially in Budapest, crowds filled the streets with relief and celebration, as record numbers tracked the election result late into the night. “I partied all night,” one man told the Guardian. “It was crazy, I thought Fidesz was going to win. Now I’m really hopeful.” “I’m over the moon,” another woman told the New York Times. “I just can’t believe it, finally I can say that I can be a proud Hungarian.”
Will the next blue wave be a Tsunami? This month, Virginia voters approved a redistricting plan expected to create four heavily Democratic-leaning seats. The move could give Democrats an edge in the redistricting battle initiated by Donald Trump in Republican-led states in 2025. Those additional seats could prove significant in November’s midterms, as Democrats aim to overturn the Republican majority in both the House and Senate.
The redistricting war began this summer in Texas, after Trump urged Texas legislators to redraw the state’s congressional map to give the Republicans a new edge in five districts. California legislators countered in November, managing to redraw maps in such a way that they could all but guarantee five more Democratic House wins, just enough to cancel out those in Texas.
Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Utah also redrew their maps this year, though Ohio and Utah were constitutionally mandated and court-ordered. Now, as it stands after the Virginia decision, Democrats enter the midterm elections with a one-seat edge based on past voting patterns. However, with democratic stronghold states including Illinois, Maryland, and New York turning down opportunities to redistribute seats in 2026, Florida remains the only wild card left to play with between 1 and 5 seats still available to be drawn up, yet this is potentially not so popular with voters.
Beyond the redistricting war, Democrats are consistently outperforming their 2024 baseline in a wide range of special elections, often by significant margins, even in districts that strongly favoured Republicans. This pattern suggests a measurable shift toward Democrats since the last presidential election, driven in part by higher engagement among their voters and backlash against MAGA’s unorthodox policies.
Democrats have made modest but notable gains in swing states, including holding and strengthening positions in legislatures like Pennsylvania’s and winning key races such as Virginia’s governorship. They have also flipped a handful of state legislative seats in battleground areas through special elections. However, these advances remain incremental; Democrats have improved margins and momentum rather than achieving widespread control of governorships or state chambers.
The redistricting efforts have left Democrats in a comfortable-ish position to take back the House; recent polling shows that Trump’s declining popularity, particularly on the economy, may make just enough room for Democratic Senate candidates to do the impossible and gain control of the Senate. To do so, Democrats must defend all their current seats on the ballot and flip at least four red states, all of which Trump has won three times. But the Cook Political Report has identified eleven seats that could turn blue come November, with formidable challengers led by Graham Platner (ME), Sherrod Brown (OH), and Roy Cooper (NC).
Polls and predictions aside, the next blue wave is unlikely to be a tsunami, but much is at stake, including the right to vote itself. If victorious in November, Democrats would hope to start the process of reversing Project 2025, particularly regarding healthcare, tax cuts, immigration, climate, and administration oversight. Trump’s current top priority Senate bill, the SAVE Actwould disenfranchise millions of voters by requiring excessive proof of citizenship (this Act is especially detrimental to women and naturalised citizens); it could either be the deciding factor in Republicans’ favour, or the extra push Democrats need in their anti-corruption agenda, which is gaining more and more traction amongst voters across parties.
Can Starmer stabilise the ship? This month, Olly Robbins, a senior civil servant at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was forced to resign after The Guardian revealed his department had overridden a vetting decision that found Peter Mandelson unsuitable for the role of British Ambassador to the United States. The episode marks another setback in what has become the most serious crisis of Keir Starmer’s stormy premiership.
Peter Mandelson was appointed ambassador last year by Kier Starmer, a role he only held for seven months before he was dismissed in September over new revelations about his close relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The revelations spurred mounting questions from opposition parties, as well as the media, over how much Starmer’s cabinet knew about Mandelson’s relationship with Epstein and why he was appointed in the first place.
Olly Robbins is the most recent in a string of high-profile exits over the course of Starmer’s tenure. This list includes former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney, who left the party last month after taking what he called “full responsibility” for advising Starmer to appoint Mandelson.
The prime minister has maintained that he knew nothing about the failed vetting process or the allegations before appointing Mandelson, but Tory opposition leader Kemi Badenoch is calling for a full investigation, citing that the precise reason Mandelson failed the vetting process is still unknown. Badenoch is one of many now calling on Starmer to step down, including the leaders of the Lib-Dems, the Green Party, Reform, and the Scottish Labour Party, as well as several English Labour MPs.
“The distraction needs to end, and the leadership in Downing Street has to change,” Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar said this week. The decision to renounce Starmer comes at a key moment in Scottish politics as the Scottish Labour Party seeks to defeat the Scottish National Party for the first time in nearly two decades. Support for Starmer will be a revealing bellwether of public opinion in May’s local elections across the UK.
Labour is expected to face severe losses in the upcoming elections, particularly after the rise of Reform support and the Green Party’s unprecedented success in the Gorton and Denton by-election. For now, Keir Starmer insists he will not step down and will press on with the party’s five-year mandate, but May’s election results could yet turn the tide.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist
Image Credit: LeMonde