By Sannat Odhrani
When a protester lowered Iran’s national flag at its London embassy in mid-January and raised the pre-1979 banner of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the image became emblematic of a protest movement that spanned both the homeland and its diaspora across the globe. The nation’s latest wave of political unrest and state repression has come in response to the convergence of several crises – economic, environmental, and political – that not only expose deep structural fragilities within the Islamic Republic, but may represent the most serious challenge to its longevity to date.
On December 28, 2025, protesters took to the streets of Iran in response to the country’s long-running economic crisis, which saw a purported 56 per cent decrease in currency value in the preceding six months. As nationwide protests escalated, they took on a distinctly adversarial character, featuring swathes of citizens expressing discontent and some going so far as to call for the removal of Ayatollah and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Many have also directed anger toward the country’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, particularly over his failure to deliver on government reform and offer long-term solutions to the country’s numerous domestic crises.
While soaring inflation has further destabilised an economy already weakened by years of international sanctions, an unprecedented water crisis has left many Iranian cities on the brink of ‘water day zero,’ with reserves in imminent danger of running out. This adds a further public health element to the mounting economic, security, and human rights emergencies facing not only the Iranian people, but the regime’s domestic legitimacy.
Clashes between peaceful protesters and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards led to reports of extremely high casualty figures. While the Iranian government has officially recognised a death toll of over 3,000 people, numerous reports have estimated far greater numbers. According to activists, over 7,000 people were killed during protests, although even this figure is contested, with some tallies indicating that over 33,000 people may have died. The Iranian government is yet to respond to these claims.
Making matters worse, the government has imposed a state-wide internet blackout, severely restricting the flow of information both domestically and internationally. Iranian authorities have routinely resorted to internet blackouts to suppress dissent, including during the 2022 protests triggered by the torture and killing of Mahsa Amini by the so-called morality police, among other instances. Although some reports claim internet service is now gradually being restored across the country, accounts from citizens – though extremely limited – paint a far more nuanced picture. It appears that internet access is sporadic, unreliable, and heavily restricted, with no clear indication of whether full service will be restored.
In light of the harrowing reports emerging from Iran, a series of international actors moved swiftly to condemn systemic state violence. The government’s response to protesters can only be described as brutal, with authorities choosing to deploy the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) in an attempt to quell all forms of demonstration. The EU chose to respond decisively in designating the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, a move driven by widespread concern for its historic and ongoing human rights violations on Iranian soil and abroad. On January 12, US President Donald Trump signalled the possibility of military intervention, posting that “help is on its way” via his Truth Social account and urging protests to continue, leaving the international community unsure of what an American response might look like.
Amid further reports that the Iranian government was preparing a series of executions – including that of protestor Erfan Soltani, who was ultimately released on bail – the American president suggested that military action remained a possibility. Reports suggest American pressure on the Iranian government, as well as widespread international outcry may have helped prevent the scheduled executions. Trump claimed he helped prevent the executions of 800 protesters, which Iranian authorities have denied.
On January 26, reports emerged that the US’s Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG-3) had been deployed to the Middle East and was undergoing operations in the Arabian Sea, with a Shahed drone reportedly being shot down by US forces on February 3. While a growing American presence in the Middle East has caused some concern, numerous Gulf states reportedly welcome and pushed for US-Iran talks to go ahead in Oman, eager to maintain the careful balance of power in the region and avoid any escalation that could lead to a widening of several simmering and limited conflicts.
Regime change had been floated during the progression of the crisis. Donald Trump implied the possibility with his claim that ‘help is on its way’ and assertion that protesters should continue opposing the regime, in his clearest indication of the prospect of intervention in Iran. The son of the former Shah, Reza Pahlavi, also posited himself as equipped to lead a future, democratic Iran, while critics accuse him of fanning the flames of insurrection from abroad. Mixed international and domestic attitudes towards Pahlav and uncertainty regarding the outcome of the popular protests have rendered his role in Iran’s potential future difficult to discern.
US-Iran negotiations ultimately transpired on February 6, and, at the time of writing, bilateral relations appear fraught with tensions at best. The two states entered their first round of talks, mediated by Muscat, with the intention of de-escalating the situation at hand, with American interests firmly rooted in achieving a nuclear deal with Iran. Interestingly, the exact focus of the discussions remains unclear to international observers, and it remains unclear as to how talks may progress further. The American government is yet to rule out the threat of military intervention, while Iran has maintained that any American interference could conceivably lead to large-scale regional escalation.
In the absence of decisive major-power intervention, the Islamic Republic appears to have found its footing for the meantime. Yet the convergence of economic collapse, environmental crisis, and political repression has exposed structural vulnerabilities like never before. As international attention now pivots away from the regime’s myriad crimes against its people, and towards international politics, one must highlight the importance of Iranian voices being heard, amplified, as well as remembrance of those who have already given their lives in the hope of a better future for their country.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
Image Credit: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP