By D. Ariel Dodds
Climate change is now one of the strongest forces driving human migration, disrupting rural economies, and pushing communities toward urban centers at unprecedented rates. Nepal is no exception.
Nepal is divided into seven provinces, with a largely rural demographic – nearly 80% of its population is classified as rural. Bagmati Province, home to the capital city of Kathmandu, is widely considered the most developed province of Nepal. This is due to substantially higher industrialization, political influence from a concentration of political institutions, and development compared to any of the other six provinces. Kathmandu is a bustling metropolitan city; it has a population of roughly 2.54 million with an annual growth rate of 6.5%.
As of 2021, “Bagmati Province shows the highest lifetime figure of in-migration (1,150,626)” because of the appeal of urban areas like Kathmandu and the Chitwan Valley.
With its unique geographic features and lacking governmental oversight, Nepal is incredibly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. According to the ND-GAIN index (a metric that evaluates a country’s readiness for and vulnerability to climate change), Nepal ranks 126th out of 187 countries. The Himalayas are at great risk; accelerated glacial melt and altered monsoon patterns have already been observed. Not only does this put the natural landscape at risk, but it endangers rural livelihoods. Unpredictable weather, both increased rainfall and lengthened droughts, will do lasting damage to crops and arable land in an already fragile ecosystem.
While climate change is rarely the sole driver behind rural to urban migration, the increasing frequency of flooding and landslides across rural Nepal has pushed many smallholder farming families to urban regions. This migration means farming families are relocating to large cities in search of stable work. However, there are not enough formal job opportunities to meet this influx. This mismatch of labor supply and demand forces migrants to look toward the informal job market. Furthermore, migration to urban areas has added a strain to food distribution systems, with much of Kathmandu’s food distribution coming from small markets. The combination of these two effects depresses the informal sector’s wages and increases competition for affordable food, worsening urban food insecurity.
Despite the Bagmati Province’s economic strength in comparison to other provinces, income inequality and high food prices mean that economic growth does not equate to equitable and adequate nutrition. As agriculture declines and employment shifts to low-wage service sectors, households spend a higher share of income on food, leaving many unable to meet basic nutritional needs. When families cannot meet food costs, they often survive on rotten or expired food. This can lead to a nutritional poverty trap, where individuals develop illnesses from malnutrition that further prevent them from gaining skills or employment. At the national level, Nepal has many societal issues with malnutrition. However, this worsens at the provincial level in urban environments. The UNDP found that, in the Bagmati Province, where the capital city of Kathmandu is located, 42% of the population experiences undernourishment, children under the age of 5 experience stunting at a rate of 29.4%, and anaemia is common in women of reproductive age. From World Food Program USA, “10% of Nepal’s children are severely hungry.”
From the mismatch between labor supply and demand to the increased rates of malnutrition, the Kathmandu Valley falls into the Urban Paradox. “Urban Paradox” is a term that emerged from urban environments with vast inequality – it is most observed in areas facing rapid urbanization and lacking equitable governmental institutions. It is based on the finding that the most vulnerable urban children are often worse off than their rural peers, and how a great deal of the advantages of urban environments disappear when you control for an individual’s wealth.
But there is a potential solution to this that can – and should – be encouraged by the Nepalese government.
Walking around Kathmandu, you may notice something strange. Stalks of corn sprouting from empty lots, growing behind parking garages and coffee shops, and along the sides of highways. Amid all the bustle of the city, corn grows. Corn is not the only urban agriculture in Kathmandu, but it is by far the most prevalent. It is often viewed as a staple crop to bolster food security in communities. Research done on similar food-insecure, rapidly urbanizing environments like Namibia found that urban agriculture has the ability to provide access to fresh, nutritious food while lowering carbon emissions. There are lower transport costs associated with urban agriculture, and it bolsters local food resilience by creating informal safety nets.
As the capital city rapidly grows, residents’ land use needs to adapt to the population change. The governments of cities like Kathmandu must pursue policies that support and encourage urban agriculture. This could come in the form of subsidies for rooftop gardens, composting initiatives, designated neighborhood gardens, or general land-use reform. It is vital that, as climate change threatens traditional ways of life, cities across the world look toward sustainable urban planning to support necessary migration.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.