By Sarah Caldwell
On January 9, 2025, Lebanon’s parliament ended two years of political stasis when presidential candidate Joseph Aoun secured 99 parliamentary votes, more than enough to push him over the two-thirds minimum. His election has been widely celebrated in Lebanon and across the world after the country’s 12 failed attempts to elect a new leader since the former president’s term ended in October 2022.
Joseph Aoun’s success has largely been attributed to Hezbollah’s faltering domestic political leverage following the group’s war with Israel and the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. The 14-month war, which ended in a ceasefire in November, caused an estimated $9bn in damage and took the lives of 4,000 Lebanese citizens. The conflict left Hezbollah severely weakened and Lebanon in desperate need of international assistance.
Similarly, the fall of long-time Hezbollah ally and former President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, meant that the group no longer had a strong foreign ally in Syria, while Aoun had gained Saudi, French, and American support. “We have no plans to get involved in Lebanon’s affairs,” Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s now de facto leader, told journalists last month. He added that he had no objection to Aoun’s presidency.
Hezbollah and its parliamentary ally Harakat Amal’s candidate for President, Suleiman Frangieh, dropped out of the election the day prior, forcing the coalition to eventually get behind Aoun in the second round of voting or risk political isolation.
“I don’t think [Hezbollah] could afford to torpedo the process, especially after the war, and its implications in terms of reconstruction and the challenges to the Shia community,” shared Sami Atallah, founding director of Beirut-based think-tank The Policy Initiative. “They felt like they were forced into a compromise, forced into accepting a candidate.”
Under the National Pact, the Lebanese president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of Parliament a Shiite Muslim, thus paving the way for Joseph Aoun, a Christian, to occupy the largely symbolic role.
Aoun, a rare bipartisan in Lebanon’s fractured, transactional political climate, began his service in the Lebanese Army in 1986 during the 15-year Civil War. He was appointed army chief in 2017 and led the country’s army during the war with Israel, though they were not directly involved in the conflict.
Joseph Aoun underwent training in the US counterterrorism programme and built strong connections with the US (and Saudi Arabia) after launching a successful counterterrorism campaign against ISIS fighters in the mountains of Syria and Lebanon as the head of the army. These connections were vital to his presidential victory but also earned him the nickname ‘Washington’s Man’.
Supporters have touted Aoun’s victory as a new era for Lebanon, one without influence from Hezbollah, Syria or Iran which have dominated the country’s politics since the end of its Civil War in 1990. Yet critics have implied that the country has traded one form of external influence for another, as US-backed Lebanese Armed Forces seem to have gained the military upper hand over Hezbollah.
Saudi, French, and American influence proved critical to Aoun’s eventual success after he lost in the first round of voting. France’s special envoy to Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian provided a diplomatic channel between the dis-aligned political parties, while US Special Envoy to Lebanon Amos Hochstein offered support through various meetings in the week prior.
But it was a Saudi delegation, led by Prince Yazid bin Farhan, that ultimately carried Aoun over the hump in a last-minute succession of meetings less than twenty-four hours before the election, proving essential in obtaining Hezbollah and Amal’s votes.
Aoun’s government will now take charge of carrying out the ceasefire agreement with Israel. The ceasefire deal stipulates that Hezbollah must pull back from south of the Litani River and be replaced by the Lebanese army, to ensure that Israel will retreat behind the UN-defined border between Lebanon and Israel.
Israel has welcomed Aoun’s appointment.
In his inauguration speech, Aoun pledged to “affirm the state’s right to monopolise the carrying of weapons” further reducing Hezbollah’s military presence. He also emphasised his ambitions to unify the country, promising to rebuild areas targeted by Israel, including the southern border and the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh.
Even still, such rebuilding efforts will only be possible with the help of foreign investment and a loan from the International Monetary Fund. This loan will only become available if Aoun’s government can completely restructure public debt and overhaul the country’s banking system. This will prove to be no small task amidst a government riddled with corruption where Hezbollah and its allies still occupy a sizable political bloc.
Aoun’s first act as President has been the appointment of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam who will face the difficult task of forming a government in the coming weeks. He has made his intentions of allyship clear with Hezbollah’s bloc, despite their not backing his nomination.
“My hands are extended to all to set off together on this mission, I am not of those who exclude but those who unite,” he said in his acceptance speech, calling for a “new chapter” in Lebanon.
Salam, who began his career as an academic and lecturer, served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the UN for ten years before he was appointed as a judge to the International Court of Justice where he was made president in 2024. Salam has notably worked on UN Resolution 1701 (the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah) as well as presided over South Africa’s successful case accusing Israel of committing Genocide in Gaza.
The two politicians have both spread messages of hope and reform but the road ahead will be steep as they work to disarm Hezbollah, secure Lebanon’s borders, and set the country on a path to economic recovery.
Lebanon is turning a corner and the Lebanese people are finding new hope. Reflecting on Aoun’s inauguration speech, 21-year-old student, Lynn Hammoud, stated, “If it is truly applied as is, we will surely have a beautiful Lebanon that we deserve.” Commenting on the appointment of Nawaf Salam, 22-year-old student Sally Nasr, concluded, “What seemed impossible becomes tangible.”
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
Image courtesy of Reuters.com
Lebanon’s army chief Joseph Aoun looks on after being elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon on Jan 9.