by Jack Bruns
Once the murder capital of the world, El Salvador has transformed into the safest country in Latin America with a homicide rate lower than every other country, at just 2.4 per 100,000 people. Following his election in June 2019, Nayid Bukele took extreme measures to shore up El Salvador’s security and instill international confidence. The hope: to improve international perception of El Salvador, increase foreign direct investment (FDI), and eliminate the risk of sovereign debt default. But what inspired President Bukele to have such aims and, in turn, is El Salvador’s transformation setting its economy on track for sustainable long-term growth?
El Salvadorans grew tired of violent gangs controlling nearly every aspect of life. Victor and Blanca Boloños, loosing their asylum claim in the United States, voluntarily returned to El Salvador in 2018 saying “When we came back the situation was difficult…everything was unsafe…insecurity, lots of robberies, lots of gangs.” In 2015, the nation reported a homicide rate of 105 per 100,000 people, higher than any other country. One’s movement, use of public space, or speech interfering with gang activities came not with a threat of death, but a guarantee. Upon taking office in 2019, Bukele began three years of negotiations with gangs to reduce homicides. The contents of these negotiations are largely unknown; however, sanctions imposed by the United States Treasury Department in 2021 against top Bukele officials for corrupt activities with gang members, including bribery, suggest they were not completely above board. Regardless, homicides plummeted, with just eighteen per 100,000 people in 2021.
While negotiations initially lowered homicide rates, FDI was stagnant and gangs maintained their influence and power. Subsequently, it took little effort for gangs to revert to their murderous activities. In 2022, homicides dramatically increased and Bukele went nuclear. Suspending constitutional rights and implementing aggressive criminal reforms, he reinstated policies of mano dura (“tough hand” or “iron fist”) and declared a period of no exception. This meant anyone and everyone suspected of, associated with, or in the vicinity of gang activities could be arrested. In just weeks, 81,000 people were jailed. In 2023, the reported homicide rate dropped to 2.4 per 100,000 people. Currently, one in fifty-seven people are incarcerated, a rate three times higher than that of the United States.
Thus, Bukele–whose agenda lies in improving El Salvador’s international perception–hopes to rid the country’s characterization as a dangerous, out-of-control, poor Latin American nation overrun by gangs. Economically, he understands a perception of safety and stability reaps capital access and FDI which El Salvador desperately needs to avoid imminent sovereign debt default. Hence, he has grown hyper fixated on the country’s homicide rate. Before 2021, bodies found in unmarked or clandestine graves were included in homicide counts; however, following Bukele’s directive, El Salvador no longer counts these homicides. Marvin Reyes, the leader of the El Salvador Police Union, tells Foreign Policy that after the change, as murder rates dropped, “we began to find more unmarked and clandestine graves where the gangs would bury their victims”. Since 2021, 171 unmarked graves have been discovered and many of these were mass graves. Bukele’s change to the homicide counting policy reflects his paramount priority of lowering homicides on paper, even if it does not reflect reality.
Bukele’s mano dura policies told the world his nation is safe with the bad actors locked up and under control. His fixation on perception worked and this message was positively received. He attracted investors, eliminated the risk of imminent sovereign debt default, and instilled a sense of hope in his people. In 2023, El Salvador attracted nearly $759.7 million in FDI inflows, surpassing the ten-year average by more than sixty percent. Also, domestic and international companies increased investment in tourism, textile manufacturing, construction, and wholesale. Most importantly, El Salvador prioritized the payment of external debt and is involved in ongoing conversations with the IMF over terms and conditions for capital support. For the first time in years, his people feel their nation is theirs again and his popularity proves it.
Despite numerous accusations of human rights violations, including forced disappearances and torture, as well as his systematic efforts to consolidate power (reducing the legislature from 84 to 60 representatives), Bukele is overwhelmingly popular. A recent poll found Bukele has over a 90% approval rating among foreigners. His people love him as well. This year, he won a second term with over eighty-five percent of the vote. Blanca Boloños, a resident of El Salvador tells CNN, “Now, one feels safe, freedom is felt in our country”. They applaud his actions as a long overdue show of strength in a region historically defined by danger and chaos.
At the same time, condemnation has poured in, including from the Biden administration, yet it has had little impact. FDI has not slowed, and–if anything–Bukele’s overwhelming popularity has granted influence over those who have condemned, increasing investor confidence. For example, the Biden Administration’s rhetoric has since dampened and, in 2024, the Secretary of Homeland Security attended Bukele’s second inauguration. In discussing Bukele’s popularity, U.S. Representative of California Lou Correa tells TIME, “Suddenly it’s better to embrace them […] and try not to fight against something that is too popular, not just in El Salvador but throughout all of Latin America”. The reality is, no matter how outside perspectives disparage the ethics of Bukele’s policies, they remain popular and unlikely to change. The mano dura policies and the perception of change they have instilled is working. Global confidence and invesestment are up, crime is down, and default is not imminent. His people, Latin Americans, and a significant portion of the Western world applaud the results, even if the means to achieve them are, at best, questionable.
So, is Bukele leading El Salvador to lasting economic growth and prosperity? There is no doubt the security situation in El Salvador has improved. Homicides are down and gangs have lost some influence. Also, FDI inflows are higher and domestic industry is growing. However, in understanding Bukele’s focus on perception, El Salvador’s transformation remains largely surface-level. Gangs, like MS-13, are still very much a part of daily life, with significant influence and control over communities and officials at all levels. Also, the reported homicide rate does not reflect reality. It is estimated that officials in El Salvador, facing immense pressure from Bukele, underreport homicides by as much as forty-seven percent. Compound this with the exclusion of homicides discovered in unmarked, clandestine, and often mass graves. While El Salvador no longer faces the risk of imminent sovereign debt default and further downgrades to their credit, the fiscal situation is not under control. By shoring up its security, El Salvador significantly worsened its fiscal position. Security is expensive, really expensive. Mano dura and related policies have come at a cost of $30 billion and continue to increase. With expanding national debt in El Salvador, and Bukele’s avoidance of implementing hard yet necessary fiscal policies, debt obligations continue to absorb large amounts of public spending and constrict long-term growth. That, coupled with its low credit rating and extremely limited access to capital, El Salvador is currently sitting on a foundation made of a few worn-out playing cards. It is only a matter of time before investors digest the fact that El Salvador cannot afford to continue with the security measures keeping their investments safe without significant cuts elsewhere. The nation is climbing a mountain that is much taller and steeper than its people and the wider international community understand and, if it continues on this trajectory, long-term economic growth is impossible.