By Taraneh Sanat
With over 50 countries heading to the polls in 2024, it is safe to say it is a major year for elections . This is particularly evident across South Asia, where the threat of economic uncertainty lays heavy, and nationwide political protest has become the order of the day. The most recent presidential election in the region occurred this September in Sri Lanka, where Marxist candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the presidential race with over 5 million votes, representing 42.31% of votes . As leader of the left-leaning National People’s Power (NPP) coalition, Dissanayake epitomizes a shifting dynamic within the country, which appeals to young voters concerned with the spike in unemployment and a historic lack of government transparency. His presidency is a welcome change for many Sri Lankans who took to the streets to demand a change of political regimes in 2022.
Following his inauguration, the country’s new president has taken extreme measures to reinforce promises made to the newly burgeoning electorate. Dissanayake has signaled his stance against the previous administration’s austerity policies by disbanding the parliament to pursue economic measures in alignment with the NPP platform. Though his party holds the presidency, it only occupied three out of 225 seats in the now dissolved parliament, a contrast that is representative of greater democratic trends within the region.
Background
For nearly two decades, political power in Sri Lanka was held in a vice-grip by the Rajapaksa family. Through authoritarian social policies and rampant nepotism, the family was able to concentrate power “to the point that the country came to resemble an autocratic family business”. Despite continuous allegations of corruption and human rights abuses, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family still maintained popularity in parliament and with nationalist sects in the country. Yet after the collapse of the country’s poorly managed economy under Gotabaya Rajapaksa, years of political fragmentation and turmoil bubbled over into an unstoppable political and social force.
In 2022, the capital city of Colombo was filled with activists and ordinary citizens alike, demanding transparency from the country’s political institutions and accountability for rampant financial corruption which led to the devastating collapse. This movement, known as Aragalaya –– the Sinhala word for struggle –– was revolutionary for its political and social progressiveness, exhibiting a rare act of collective protest across social, ethnic, and religious classes in Sri Lanka for the first time in the country’s history. The result of this social and political activism was the spectacular fall from grace suffered by the once revered political dynasty. Scenes of euphoria could be observed across the capital as young protestors stormed the colonial-era government buildings and splashed around in the private pool of the disgraced president. However, the excitement of a new regime was short-lived as the realities of the economic situation facing the country sank in.
A New Political Era for Sri Lanka
Upon his election, Dissanayake inherited a broken economic system, which relied on an IMF bailout loan of 2.9 billion USD, which had been engaged by interim president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, to correct the financial crisis. The 48-month emergency loan had crippling effects on government subsidies and tanked the value of Sri Lanka’s currency. Many in the country viewed the results of the IMF loan as an example of failing neoliberal economic policies and the broken political culture, making a reform candidate like Dissanayake more attractive to voters. Additionally, the wide-spread support for President Dissanayake and the NPP indicates a new outlook amongst Sri Lankans on the social and religious tensions which were preyed upon by the Rajapaksa family in order to maintain power. Social justice, as well as solidarity and cooperation, are integral to the NPP platform, and the favorable view of the coalition amongst voters shows a willingness to put aside division to rebuild the country’s social and economic institutions. In his victory speech, Dissanayake called for unity within the country, making sure to highlight the varied communities in Sri Lanka such as the Sinhalese, Tamils, and Muslims which contributed to the success of his campaign. This stands as a positive indicator that cooperation between diverse ethnic and religious groups in Sri Lanka could continue under the guidance of a new administration, something which was not attempted under Rajapaksa’s administration. These changes have brought a certain vitality and optimism to the country, representing a refreshing separation between the old political guard and the new.
Nevertheless, the challenges faced by President Dissanayake and his administration are formidable and their plans for economic recovery have yet to be realized. Though he has expressed his intention to renegotiate the standing IMF bailout, Dissanayake cannot initiate any meaningful economic reforms until a new parliament has been elected this coming November. As Sri Lankans head to the polls once again, the promise of a more progressive social order, combined with continuing economic anxieties, are sure to be reflected in the makeup of the new parliamentarians.
A Mirror on the Rest of South Asia?
The ongoing political and economic situation in Sri Lanka is simultaneously reflected and rebuked within the broader political landscape of the region. Although elections in Nepal and student protests in Bangladesh have resulted in the ascension of left-leaning politicians, results for the region’s major power, India, conjure a drastically different image.
This summer was a turning point for simmering political tensions beyond Sri Lanka’s borders; with South Asian countries heading to the polls and the streets to express their approval or discontent with the existing political establishment. In Nepal, a shake-up of coalitions within parliament propelled the leader of the country’s largest communist party to the office of prime minister. The new PM, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, appealed to voters who are fearful about the recent economic downturn and wish to resuscitate political stability. This recalls a striking similarity to Dissanayake’s election in Sri Lanka and evokes a larger political trend in the region, where voters have placed their confidence in left-leaning leadership due to the economic and social failures of the existing political order. Another South Asian state where this trend can be observed is Bangladesh. After mass waves of student demonstrators took to the streets of Dhaka to protest government authoritarianism and job-quotas, the fifteen-year reign of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina came to a crashing end. An interim government led by Nobel laureate and microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus has been appointed, indicating a renewed national focus on the economy. Like Dissanayake, Yunus represents a new political guard focused on rebuilding an unstable economy and fractured political establishment. These examples indicate a shake-up of regional dynamics which could lead to more potential cooperation across smaller powers within the region, forgoing India as the chief regional negotiator.
Unlike its neighboring countries, India’s most recent elections have not led to mass political uprising and its economic infrastructure has emerged confidently from a period of uncertainty, maintaining its place as one of the world’s fastest growing economies. Though there have been protests against the Hindu-nationalist government, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed to maintain a majority in this year’s parliamentary elections, despite significant political opposition. These results indicate that unlike Sri Lanka and other regional neighbors, India will be slower to shift towards the left in parliament and many voters may be hesitant to forgo regional identities in favor of more secular policies. However, the loss of parliamentary seats for the BJP party signifies that India’s democratic institutions are holding up quite well in comparison to the autocratic regime which have been toppled in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Conclusion: Where Does this Leave the State of Democracy in South Asia?
Despite contradictory results in the region, the strengthening of democratic institutions is on the rise in South Asia. Elections and political movements such as those in Sri Lanka, which have placed pro-democracy candidates in office, have occurred in several states signaling a favorable view of leftist and center-left candidates amongst voters. This also shows a desire amongst South Asians for less secular division and more political reform to counteract government corruption and economic downturn. In Sri Lanka, recent political change has settled into an uneasy hope for the future, which can be observed across the region. Nevertheless, it is possible that historic regional tensions and economic scarcity could lead to an increasingly difficult environment for inter-state cooperation, specifically with India who is determined to maintain their sphere of economic and democratic influence in South Asia. Competition for financial resources will almost certainly be at the forefront of multilateral relations in the coming months as several countries in the region devise plans to counteract economic hardship which are in alignment with their leftist platforms like that of Sri Lanka’s President Dissanayake. However, for the growth of the region and the future of its democratic institutions, it is integral that these divisions are set aside.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
Image from Dinuka Liyanawatte/REUTERS