By Brooke Ryback
This year is marked by an unprecedented number of elections worldwide, kicking off with Taiwan’s general elections in January and awaiting the US presidential election in November. In turn, this year also brings about questions regarding the state of global leadership, especially how positional changes and new faces will affect the future of global politics. Mexico – whose election on 2 June 2024 elected its first female president – is mulling over such questions with an additional gendered focus. Claudia Sheinbaum, climate scientist and former mayor of Mexico City, won Mexico’s presidential election with 58.3-60.7% of the national vote. Yet, despite Sheinbaum’s “landslide” win and promises of political continuity from predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), which would seem to indicate consensus-based politics, the country remains divided. Sheinbaum’s six-year presidency officially begins 1 October, yet national fears regarding the possible undermining of democratic institutions, persistent cartel and gender-based violence, and economic inequality must begin to be addressed in the meantime. Furthermore, Sheinbaum must do so within a larger, international context that includes Venezuela’s ongoing electoral crisis and the upcoming US presidential election, with the previously unexpected possibility of electing the first female American president. Thus, in the midst of a time where much remains unknown, this article attempts to answer what Mexico’s gendered change in leadership and continued political division means for the future of global politics.
Necessary Change or More of the Same?
Claudia Sheinbaum vows to continue the policies and programs set about by her populist predecessor López Obrador. This includes her extended support for Mexico’s universal pension benefit for seniors, low-income cash payments, and youth integration programs, all of which are projected to benefit about 28 million Mexicans this year. However, despite such promises of continuity, Sheinbaum’s election continues to signify great political and cultural change for the country. Most obvious is her election as Mexico’s first female president, marking political advancement for women in a country with one of the highest rates of femicides in the world. As such, her new role in the nation’s politics is an added link to a growing chain of events challenging the country’s dominant macho culture and concerning rates of gender-based violence. Thousands of women continue to protest gender-based violence throughout Mexico’s streets, and the Mexican Supreme Court added its support last year by decriminalizing abortion nationwide. Additionally, Sheinbaum’s Jewish heritage also moves Mexico’s vision of leadership away from its predominantly Catholic influence, amplifying the political representation of 58,876 Jewish people nationwide – the majority of which are located in Mexico City where Sheinbaum previously served as mayor.
Furthermore, beyond these gendered, ethnic, and religious terms, Sheinbaum’s alternative leadership style is under particular scrutiny in anticipation of her official start date in October. Many have pointed – even expressed reluctance – towards Sheinbaum’s lack in the charisma and popularity which characterized her predecessor of six years, AMLO. Instead, possibly in light of her academic background as a climate scientist with a Ph.D. in energy engineering, Sheinbaum is known to have a much more reserved, analytical, and exacting reputation. This was apparent in the cabinet picks she made last month. Some familiar faces will simply switch seats in the cabinet, including former Foreign Affairs Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, who is set to become her Secretary of Economy. Others, however, clearly assert her academic focus. This includes the addition of economist and sustainable development specialist Luz Elena González Escobar as Sheinbaum’s Secretary of Energy. Alongside these picks, the incoming president also intends to establish a new ministry of science, humanities, technology, and innovation as an improvement upon the former Mexican Science Council in an effort to relieve past tensions between environmentalists and the government.
Sheinbaum’s changes, however, do not mean political discourse is unanimous within Mexico. AMLO was popularly viewed on the one hand, but divisive on the other. In taking his place, Sheinbaum risks being viewed as “his puppet,” especially if she does not address the issues and concerns he left behind. This includes lingering concerns over AMLO’s militarization and strengthening of the National Guard, as well as his “abrazos, no balazos” (“hugs not bullets”) policy towards persistent gang violence, which critics view as “too permissive”. As such, Sheinbaum is thrown into a political climate filled with conflicts of interest – not to mention legitimate danger, with the killings of about 27 candidates running for mayor or town council during this year’s elections. This is in addition to Mexico’s current 6% deficit in government spending, which will make follow-through on the social programs she hopes to support even more difficult. Money is running short, especially in sectors where Mexico once found success, like the state-owned oil company Pemex – AMLO’s prized symbol of nationalism.
With these clashing issues, Sheinbaum is “going to have her hands tied” between her environmentalist and populist aims and finding sources of income, especially since financial markets continue to react negatively towards her win. Indeed, the increasing pressures within Mexico’s domestic sphere stem from various international sources, especially in the country’s growing fears towards the undermining of democratic institutions, nationally felt side-effects of climate change including extreme heat and water shortages, and anticipation of the US election results.
Shared International Anxieties
The undermining of democratic institutions is a pressing fear not just felt domestically in Mexico but throughout the international community. Polarized political discourse, disinformation, and disputed results are globally experienced issues due to the various elections taking place this year. Countries are therefore keeping a close eye on – even being roped into – the elections of others. This is especially in the case of Venezuela, whose re-election of President Nicolás Maduro in July was contested by frustrated citizens and international governments alike. In nationwide protests, cries for the electoral council to publish tangible results have led to the detainment of more than 2,000 people and 24 deaths. In condemnation of this – and in notable partnership with the US – countries including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are pushing Venezuela to hold a new election. Conscious of the election crisis abroad, Mexico’s citizenry seems to be reacting with a similar fear and skepticism towards their own results.
Some accuse AMLO, Sheinbaum, and the Morena party of turning Mexico into a communist country “like Venezuela and Cuba”. This is no new parallel, even if current conditions abroad are heightening such fears. The weakening of democratic institutions has been a long-time critique against AMLO’s presidency, especially because of his cuts to the National Electoral Institute’s funding, verbal attacks against journalists and Mexico’s judiciary, as well as weakened oversight of campaign spending. Thus, by extension, citizen concerns are spilling into Sheinbaum’s election. Protests continue to spark across the country in condemnation of the Morena party’s dominance within the Senate, which is just two seats away from a supermajority. Opponents worry such overrepresentation may tempt Sheinbaum and the Morena party to make constitutional amendments that further support AMLO’s breaches of democracy.
Venezuela’s election crisis is also not the only international affair Mexicans are watching to make sense of their own election results. The upcoming US election, and the polarized political discourse surrounding it, will certainly influence Mexico’s internal decisions. From security and migration policy to trade, Sheinbaum will have to tread lightly as she establishes her foreign policy and relationship with the US. In one sense, Sheinbaum’s experience studying in the US, gaining intimate insight into the country’s politics and speaking English, equips her well for the task; however, as AP journalist María Verza points out, “no one can control the Trump factor.” Yet, this past month has also shown the Democratic party is just as unpredictable with its switch in nominees from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris. Both sides – Harris and Trump – make clear their contending visions of America will inevitably alter those of other countries, including Sheinbaum’s vision of Mexico.
Like her predecessor, Sheinbaum shares a distrust towards market-oriented administrations, believing neo-liberalism to be the root cause of Mexico’s social ills and economic inequality. As such, her leftist stance would inevitably lead to a tense dialogue between the neighboring countries under a Trump administration. Tensions would likely heighten because of his contested treatment of women (including his 2023 indictment of sexually abusing E. Jean Caroll), skepticism towards climate change and sustainable energy, and his vocalized support for the oil industry. As such, Trump’s stance goes against the very themes and identities characterizing Sheinbaum’s historical election. Certainly, a Trump win would paint a much starker picture for Mexico than if the presidency were to go to Kamala Harris, whose similar populist leanings, chance of becoming the US’s own first female president, and platform endorsed by environmental and women’s rights groups (such as EMILYs List and Sierra Club and League of Conservation) could enhance a sense of comradery between the two leaders. However, no matter who takes charge as Commander in Chief this November, Shienbaum will have to ensure friendly relations either way, since Mexico surpassed China as the US’s largest trade partner through the North American free-trade deal (USMC). Officials in Washington fear her sources of income will come from China seeking to bypass American tariffs. Thus, Sheinbaum will have to maintain a welcoming foreign economic policy that minimizes such brewing tensions, strikes a balance between the US and China’s good graces, and “can [ultimately] bring wealth to the Mexican people,” especially as the USMC is set to be reviewed in 2026.
Continued Contention or Global Progress?
Claudia Sheinbaum’s election demonstrates the global progress made this year in the political participation of women and other minorities. Her role as Mexico’s first female president not only challenges certain cultural and political precedents in the country, but also those in the international community. According to the UN, equal gender representation in the highest seats of power will not be reached for another 130 years. While this is a bleak statistic, her addition to the 27 countries and 28 women who currently serve as Head of State/Government is at least one step closer. Sheinbaum herself has stated, “I do not arrive alone” and – indeed – she joins Halla Tomasdottir (elected as Iceland’s second female president), and potentially Kamala Harris, in shifting the tides of global leadership this year.
These tides, however, come with rocky waters. Uncertainty, skepticism, and political contention persists. Sheinbaum’s election also contrasts the global rise in far-right politics made evident in the European Union parliamentary election. Thus, while her representational progress cannot be understated, Sheinbaum’s election equally shows just how shifty global politics continues to be. Especially while watching the US presidential election unfold, Mexico – alongside the rest of the world – remains uncertain and dependent on its results in November. Either the election will join Sheinbaum’s trajectory or the right wave. As such, conclusions come at a crossroads between marked progress and continued uncertainty. Nevertheless, what remains clear is the impact domestic elections have at the international level and, while tempting to fall into a state of voter apathy under such uncertainty, each and every vote holds immense power in the ever-globalizing international community.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.
Image Courtesy of Pedro Prado/AFP, via Liberation