by Illy Khettouch
The current situation in Gaza has sparked outrage all over the world, leading to great divide within society between those who support Israel and those who condemn it. As we approach the 2024 US presidential election primaries, tensions in the United States are escalating around this conflict, which could potentially have an impact on candidates’ popularity.
On October 7th, 2023, Hamas launched a violent attack that now exceeds 5,000 people. Beyond this terrible humanitarian crisis, there are big political consequences in the United States, especially with 2024 primaries starting in about 5 months.
President Biden has explicitly expressed his position by publicly supporting Israel. Last Wednesday (Oct. 18th), he went to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv in order to show that the US ‘will continue to have Israel’s back’. Following this meeting, President Biden announced his request for $14.6 billion in funds for Israel, with a package supporting defence contracts and the transfer of weapons and ammunition to Israel, including missile defence system ammunition and precision-guided munitions. On Sunday, he and Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed on the allowance of a “continued flow” of humanitarian assistance to Gaza, allowing US convoys to aid civilians in distress.
Overall, Americans are supportive of the US government’s stance on the issue. Polls from NPR show that 65% of Americans think the government should publicly support Israel. While the President has received praise from both sides of the aisle for his handling of the war, there is growing resentment on the left. Many Democratic representatives have criticized Biden’s standpoint, feeling that he is letting down Arab and Muslim Americans. The absence of a call for ‘de-escalation’ and the veto against the UN’s call for a cease-fire in Gaza have only fueled their anger.
This raises the question of whether these decisions will alter the outcome of the 2024 elections. The revolt has been particularly strong in swing states such as Michigan, where Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, an American-Palestinian democrat, has spoken out about how Biden’s administration is causing harm by endorsing the Israeli military, potentially costing him votes in Michigan, a crucial state for next year’s elections. During a protest in Washington attended by hundreds of protesters calling for a ceasefire, she expressed her indignation saying “President Biden, not all Americans are with you on this one and you need to understand that.”, underlining the population’s disapprobation of the current administration’s decisions.
Multifaith and multiracial coalitions have formed all across the country demanding an end to the war. Protesters emphasize on the need for peace for both Israelis and Palestinians and are pushing for a ceasefire, as well as hold Israel accountable for actions against Palestinian civilians, and urge Hamas to release Israeli hostages. Given President Biden’s history of using diplomatic and political pressure to resolve conflicts and grievances, there is significant disappointment in the White House’s response, accused of supporting Israel’s actions against Palestinians and aligning with a far-right Israeli government.
This reaction won’t go without consequences for progressive young voters, who largely voted for Biden in 2020, in swing states like Michigan and Georgia. As President Biden is seeking re-election, not only do they refuse to vote for him, but they also consider sitting out the elections due to the limited candidate options available.
Jewish and Muslim American citizens (namely staff members of the congressional staff) are uniting against Biden’s administration and although they don’t account for more than 3% of the US population, their votes have influence in specific districts, which, in turn, impacts certain states. Waleed Shahid, a Democratic Strategist, says that “the path to the White House runs through Michigan and Michigan runs through Dearborn and Detroit which are two of the largest Arab American and Muslim American cities in the country”. On top of that, younger generations also oppose Biden’s reaction and we’ve seen in previous elections that their votes can make a difference. Therefore, a part of the electorate is progressively turning against the current administration that they don’t believe accurately represents today’s Democratic values.
But the Democratic Party is not the only one that is experiencing ongoing division over the issue; members of the GOP are also disuniting. Republican voters too are not satisfied with presidential candidates, namely Donald Trump, whose favourability is decreasing. During his previous mandate, former President Trump focused on “America First”, causing the GOP to drift away from foreign policies for a while. Given the current context, members of the Republican Party want to shift to a stronger approach to international affairs. Candidates for the 2024 elections don’t share the same views on the Israel-Hamas war, which has created tensions within the party and between members. Although foreign policies are not voters’ main concern, it still plays a significant role in presidential elections, especially as the current war in Gaza involves terrorism issues, an important matter for the United States to address.
In short, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war may have an impact on the 2024 US presidential elections. President Biden’s support for Israel has provoked both plaudits and criticism, whether it be from within his own party or among progressive young voters. The Gaza issue has risen to the forefront of the national conversation, and its consequences are becoming increasingly central to the electoral landscape. Protests by both Jewish and Muslim American citizens in decisive districts, the growing influence of younger generations, and the shifting dynamics within both Democratic and Republican parties are all factors that introduce an element of uncertainty into the upcoming elections.
As the 2024 race approaches, the conflict and its broader foreign policy implications will remain a subject of friction. Candidates from both parties will need to carefully handle this issue in order to gain the trust and votes of the American electorate, particularly in key states where these matters hold undeniable weight.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own, and may not reflect the opinions of The St Andrews Economist.